South Sudan’s economic stability is under serious threat following Sudan’s notification of an imminent halt in crude oil exports.
The decision, driven by escalating violence and insecurity, poses a devastating challenge to South Sudan’s leadership, already grappling with multiple crises compounded by conflict, governance struggles, and financial uncertainty.
Sudan’s army-aligned government has informed energy firms to prepare for a shutdown, citing recent drone attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on critical oil infrastructure, damaging key facilities, including a pump station and a fuel depot in army-controlled areas, further destabilizing an already fragile export system.
In response, Sudan’s Ministry of Energy and Petroleum issued an official letter to South Sudan’s counterpart, warning that ongoing infrastructure damage could soon lead to a full-scale export stoppage.
“We have instructed both PETCO and BAPCO to deliver a fast-track roadmap to enable us to shut down the facilities,” Sudan’s Undersecretary for Energy and Petroleum, Dr. Mohieddien Naiem Saied, stated in a letter on Friday, May 9, 2025.
This looming disruption comes after a brief period of stability. In January 2025, Sudan lifted a force majeure imposed nearly a year earlier due to conflict-related pipeline damage.
South Sudan had resumed oil exports via Sudan early in 2025 after nearly a year-long hiatus, a relief to an economy where oil accounts for over 90% of revenue.
However, the pipeline transporting South Sudanese oil to Port Sudan on the Red Sea had already suffered damage in February 2024, forcing a temporary shutdown.
The lifting of restrictions earlier this year allowed exports to resume at an initial production rate of 90,000 barrels per day, a fragile success now threatened once more by renewed instability.
With oil revenue serving as the backbone of South Sudan’s economy, this fresh crisis underscores the nation’s vulnerability to external shocks.
The ongoing drone attacks highlight the risks of dependence on Sudan’s infrastructure, making South Sudan’s economic future increasingly uncertain.
As the situation unfolds, leaders face the urgent task of finding alternative solutions to mitigate the crisis, stabilize the economy, and reduce reliance on Sudan’s volatile export pathways.
If Sudan proceeds with the shutdown, South Sudan could plunge deeper into economic turmoil, with severe consequences for governance, security, and regional stability.
