The East African Community (EAC) recorded a trade surplus of USD 0.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to a trade deficit of USD 4.0 billion during the same period in 2024.
The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin for the period January to March 2025 shows that total exports increased by 47.3% to USD 17.7 billion while imports rose modestly by 4.6% to USD 16.8 billion.
This significant shift is linked to strong export performance, improved trade within the African continent and growing competitiveness across Partner States.
The Bulletin further notes that domestic exports grew by 48.1% and re-exports rose by 32.4%, reflecting a rise in locally produced and value-added goods.
“Intra-African trade contributed significantly to this outcome,” the Bulletin cited. “Trade within the continent grew by 53.9% to USD 9.5 billion, now accounting for 27.5% of total EAC trade. Intra-EAC trade alone rose by 53.6% to USD 5.2 billion, underscoring progress made in regional integration and the removal of trade barriers.”
China retained its position as the EAC’s largest trading partner during the quarter, followed by the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa and Japan.
For the first time in recent reporting periods, the region recorded a trade surplus of USD 1.8 billion with China. This was driven by a notable increase in exports to the Chinese market and a slight decline in imports.
Other key export destinations included South Africa, Hong Kong and Singapore, while imports were largely dominated by petroleum products, vehicles, machinery and plastics.
The Bulletin highlights that trade activity continued to be concentrated in a few key sectors. Base metals, minerals, agricultural goods, precious stones and machinery together accounted for more than half of the region’s total trade value.
Inflationary Pressures
The bulletin also shows that inflation remains a key challenge. Annual headline inflation in the EAC region, as measured by the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (EAC-HCPI), stood at 27.0% in March 2025, down from 30.6% in February. In comparison, the rate was 6.7% in March 2024. Month-on-month headline inflation was 0.2% in March, compared to minus 0.5% in February 2025.
“The annual average headline inflation for the 2024 calendar year stood at 13.5%, up from 6.3% in 2023,” states the Bulletin. “This was largely driven by high inflation levels in South Sudan and Burundi, which stood at 99.9% and 20.8% respectively.”
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 28.9% in March 2025, while food inflation was recorded at 49.4% for the month of March 2025 down from 55.6% registered in February 2025. Energy and utility inflation remained relatively stable at 3.3%.
Monetary Developments and Credit Growth
On monetary conditions, the Bulletin notes that broad money supply grew by 10.1% in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a more liquid financial environment across Partner States.
This growth was largely supported by a 21.1% increase in net credit to government, pointing to continued fiscal expansion and public sector financing.
Credit to the private sector also rose by 5.5%, indicating a gradual recovery in private sector activity. Additionally, net foreign assets increased by 18.1%, supported by stronger external inflows, including remittances.
“The distribution of credit across sectors showed mixed but generally positive trends,” says the bulletin. “Agricultural credit rose by 6.6%, reflecting support to food systems and agro-processing. Lending to construction and real estate grew by 17.5% and 4.8% respectively, while credit to wholesale and retail trade increased by 9.6%.”
The manufacturing sector, however, registered only marginal credit growth of 0.5%. The household sector remained the region’s largest borrower, with outstanding loans of USD 13.8 billion, followed by the wholesale and retail trade sector at USD 7.9 billion.
