South Sudan’s population is projected to reach nearly 20 million by 2030, fuelled by high fertility rates and an influx of refugees and returning citizens from neighbouring Sudan, according to figures presented during a World Population Day High-Level Dialogue in Juba.
The projections were unveiled at an event organised by the Government of South Sudan and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which brought together government officials, UN agencies and lawmakers to discuss how demographic trends could shape the country’s future.
Experts said the population is expected to grow from 13.2 million in 2021 to about 16.36 million by the end of 2026, before reaching approximately 19.99 million by 2030.
They estimated that migration linked to the conflict in Sudan could add around 2.2 million people to the population over the next four years.
The report also highlighted South Sudan’s high fertility rate of 6.4 children per woman, a crude birth rate of 40.9 births per 1,000 people, and an unmet need for family planning affecting 35.7% of women.
Officials said the country has one of the world’s youngest populations, with 70.6% of citizens under the age of 30 and nearly 59% younger than 18.
They warned that the current dependency ratio 119 dependents for every 100 working-age people places increasing pressure on schools, healthcare and employment.
“These demographic realities are not abstract numbers,” said Dr. Augustino T. Mayai, Director General of the National Bureau of Statistics.
“They represent classrooms that must be built, health services that must be expanded, skills that must be developed, and jobs that must be created.”
Despite the challenges, UN officials said South Sudan could benefit from a demographic dividend if it invests in education, healthcare, family planning and youth employment.
George Otoo, Head of Strategic Planning at the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office, said such investments could reduce the dependency ratio to 57 by 2061 and raise GDP per capita to about $11,628.
Lawmakers also pledged support for youth-focused policies.
“We know that 70 percent of the population is youth,” said MP Simon Lumuri Philip. “All sectors should take the issue of youth as a priority.”
Participants concluded that translating demographic data into effective policies would be critical to ensuring South Sudan’s rapidly growing young population becomes a driver of economic development rather than an added burden on the country’s limited resources.
